on this world population day, let's talk about population decline
and what it means for our shared futures
note: this is one of the firsts in the long-form essay series on hackyourtwenties. i hope you enjoy reading it.
during my visit to the grocery store last week while i was walking through the kids section i noticed the racks filled with baby diapers. i don’t have babies. i am not even married. but the packets reminded me of a story i had read recently. a rather unusual and strange news from across the world. it was about diapers. it came from japan. a diaper company, oji holdings, announced in 2024 that it was done making baby diapers in its home country. instead, it would focus on adult ones, reflecting a global adult diaper market projected to grow from usd 20.7 billion in 2024 to usd 37.0 billion by 2033, a 5.97% annual increase signaling a world tilting toward age over youth [imarc group, 2024].
japan’s births hit a record low of 758,631 in 2023, while deaths climbed to 1.59 million. for every new life, two ended. a country once synonymous with youthful innovation, remember sony walkmans and pokémon?, is now designing its future around the needs of the old, with over 29.9% of its population aged 65 or older [world bank, 2023].
while the world population is approximately 8.2 billion, which seems like a huge number, i want to talk about population decline. and, since its world population day today, it seemed just the right time to talk about.
the story i shared above isn’t just japan’s story. it’s ours. fewer babies, longer lives, it’s a shift so gradual it’s easy to miss, like the slow fade of a childhood street now eerily empty of kids playing cricket or tag. have you noticed it? the way urban parks seem to host more elderly walkers than young families, or how conversations about “the future” carry a faint undertone of unease? if you haven’t, you will. and if you’re in your twenties, as i suspect many of you are, this shift will define the world you inherit and the one you’ll build. it’s not just about numbers; it’s about the texture of life, the choices you’ll make, and the society you’ll shape.
let’s linger on this for a moment: what does a world with fewer children feel like to you? does it spark hope, fear, or something in between?
globally, birth rates are falling below the 2.1 children per woman needed to keep populations stable. this threshold is called the replacement rate. south korea’s fertility rate increased slightly to 0.75 in 2024 from 0.72 in 2023, yet it remains the lowest globally [statistics korea, 2025]. italy stands at 1.24, japan at 1.20 in 2023, germany at 1.5, the u.s. at 1.62, and china at 1.09 [world bank, 2022; aa, 2024]. even countries once known for high fertility, like brazil (1.6), thailand (1.3), and iran (1.7), have seen sharp declines over two decades [unfpa, 2025]. in south korea, marriages dropped 42% from 2012 to 2022, with young people citing job insecurity and housing costs as barriers [time, 2024]. a mckinsey global institute report warns that by 2100, major economies could see populations shrink by 20–50%, reshaping everything from cities to economies [pop_collapse, 2025]. these statistics are a signal that the young are becoming a minority. and that’s a reality that will ripple through your life.
but why is this happening?
it’s not just biology slowing us down. economics is playing a crucial part here. raising a child in south korea costs $250,000 from birth to college; in urban india, schooling for two kids can run ₹10–15 lakh; in the u.s., childcare can exceed $20,000 a year in major cities [oecd, 2024; nfhs-5, 2023]. then there’s the cultural factor. people are marrying later, global average age at first marriage is now 30 for men and 28 for women, up from 25 and 23 in 1990. or they are not marrying at all [un desa, 2023]. third factor is the psycholog. there’s a growing sense among people that the future is too uncertain to invest in. climate anxiety, economic precarity, and urban alienation have become major concerns. 45% of gen z globally say they’re too worried about the future to consider parenthood [yougov, 2024].
as bradley schurman writes in superage, we’re not just living longer; we’re living in a world shaped by the decline of youth.
by 2030, 34 nations will be “super-aged,” with 20% or more of their people over 65. by 2050, the global population aged 60 and up will double to 2.1 billion. in japan, 29.9% are already over 65; italy (24.5%), finland (23.6%), and germany are close behind [world bank, 2023].
this shift is going to affect everyone on a personal level. if you’re in your twenties, you’ll see your taxes going up, as pension systems strain to support people living to 85 or 90. in germany, the worker-to-retiree ratio has fallen from 6:1 in the 1970s to 2:1 today, and the retirement age is rising to 67, with 719,330 pensioners receiving basic social security in q1 2024, up from 511,915 in 2015 [euronews, 2024].
in japan, the consumption tax jumped from 8% to 10% in 2019 to fund social security, with discussions of a further hike to 15% by 2025 [stripe, 2024]. these fiscal pressures mean you’ll likely pay more to support aging populations, whether through taxes or higher healthcare premiums. in the u.s., social security costs are projected to rise 5.9% annually through 2035, outpacing gdp growth [cbo, 2024]. you’ll see it in your workplace, where older colleagues outnumber the young. in japan, the average construction worker is 53, and the country produces 46% of the world’s industrial robots to fill labor gaps [global finance magazine, 2023].
in the u.s., 20% of those 65+ were employed in 2023, nearly double the rate from 1988 [pew research center, 2023]. now i am not saying that this is bad. older workers bring experience. but it demands new workplace dynamics like flexible hours, ergonomic designs, and cross-generational collaboration.
then you’ll start seeing your choices being shaped up because of this changing shift. the economics of parenthood are daunting. childcare costs, housing shortages in cities like london (where average home prices hit £520,000) or mumbai (₹1.5 crore for a 2bhk) make family life feel unattainable [knight frank, 2024; anarock, 2024]. many young people postpone kids, and when they’re “ready,” biology often has other plans. in the u.s., the average age of first-time mothers rose to 27.3 in 2023 from 24.9 in 2000 [cdc, 2023]. this whole package of problems is giving rise to another, more serious issue.
the world is getting older. and younger people are getting lonelier.
a 2023 cigna survey found 79% of gen z and 71% of millennials feel isolated, more than any other age group [cigna, 2023]. in india, a 2023 study by the centre for the study of developing societies (csds) revealed 52% of urban youth have no one to talk to about personal struggles [csds, 2023]. surrounded, yet unseen.
you might be working from home, attending zoom meetings, chasing deadlines, and still wonder… does anyone really know me? intergenerational bonds could be an antidote. teach your parents to use upi; ask your grandfather about his youth, maybe stories of partition or the first tv in the neighborhood. in singapore, intergenerational programs reduced senior loneliness by 20% in pilot communities [singapore government, 2023]. could you start something similar? a book club, a tech workshop, a storytelling circle in your own building or street?
india, my home, is a paradox in this story. we’re young now, with a median age of 28.2, but the clock is ticking faster than we think. in 2000, our fertility rate was 3.5; by 2023, it hit 2.0, and in urban centers like mumbai, delhi, and bengaluru, it’s as low as 1.4–1.6 [nfhs-5, 2023]. seventeen of our 29 states and territories are below replacement level [bbc, 2024]. by 2046, india’s elderly will outnumber children aged 0–15, and by 2050, our elderly population will reach 347 million. that’s over 20% of the total population, larger than the entire u.s. today [unfpa india, 2023]. yet we’re unprepared. unlike japan or germany, we lack robust public pensions, universal elder healthcare, or age-friendly urban planning. our cities, designed for the young and mobile, rarely consider ramps, accessible public transport, or senior-friendly housing. the rosstat, russia’s statistics agency, reported in 2024 that only 7% of public spaces in moscow are fully accessible to the elderly or disabled [rosstat, 2024]. in india, the situation is similar, only 5% of public buildings comply with accessibility standards [mosje, 2023].
our traditional joint families, once a natural eldercare system, are cracking under urban migration and 12-hour workdays. who cares for your parents when you’re in a different city for your work and they’re in your hometown? government efforts like ayushman bharat, the national programme for health care of the elderly (nphce), integrated programme for older persons, and indira gandhi national old age pension scheme (ignoaps) are steps forward, but coverage is barely enough. and only 26% of eligible seniors receive ignoaps benefits due to low awareness and bureaucratic hurdles [pib, 2022]. the elderly often rely on informal networks or private care, which can cost ₹50,000–₹1 lakh monthly in urban areas [helpage india, 2023]. without a comprehensive national aging policy, india risks leaving millions vulnerable as its demographic window (where the working-age population dominates) closes by 2046 [unfpa india, 2023].
other countries offer lessons, though not all are comforting. japan’s robots, like toyota’s human support robot, can lift seniors from beds or assist with daily tasks, but they can’t fill the emotional void. japan’s elderly male suicide rate rose to 24.6 per 100,000 in 2023, among the highest globally [who, 2024]. france sustains a fertility rate of 1.8 through generous family support which is €1,300 monthly for three kids, subsidized childcare, and tax breaks. but costs are ballooning, with family benefits consuming 2.7% of gdp in 2023 [oecd, 2024]. china, scarred by its one-child policy, now offers tax rebates, free baby products, and even matchmaking events to boost births, yet its fertility rate lingers at 1.09, as young people reject parenthood amid economic pressures [aa, 2024].
but there’s something to learn from singapore which is shining with its action plan for successful ageing, raising the retirement age to 63 (and soon 65), promoting lifelong learning through skillsfuture credits (used by 30% of seniors in 2023), and fostering community via the silver generation ambassadors program, where seniors mentor others, reducing isolation [singapore government, 2023].
these examples show that technology and money help, but only community and purpose heal.
what lessons do you think india could borrow or invent to face its own aging wave?
so, what does this mean for you?
if you’re in your twenties, your life isn’t just about the hustle of today, it’s about choices that ripple across decades. with life expectancy increasing, you might live to 90, working for 70 years (global average: 73.4 years in 2023, projected to hit 77 by 2050) [who, 2024]. will you chase quick wins or build skills that endure, like adaptability or empathy? the longevity economy including healthcare, assistive tech, senior housing is a goldmine. global spending on eldercare hit $1.2 trillion in 2024 and is expected to reach $2.1 trillion by 2030 [mckinsey, 2024]. in india, the senior living market grew 15% annually from 2019 to 2024, driven by demand for retirement homes [cbre india, 2024]. if you’re a coder, designer, or entrepreneur there’s one question you should ask - ‘is my work age-friendly?’ a simple app to connect seniors with local services or a building with wider doorways could change lives yours included, one day.
i want to ask you this - what do you see in your future? do you imagine kids, a tight-knit community, or something else entirely? if you could design a world less lonely, what would it look like? a park where kids and grandparents share stories? a policy that makes parenthood affordable? i’m not asking for grand solutions. just your thoughts. share them with me, not because i have a platform, but because i’m building something. a slow, messy attempt to make these years feel less like a grind and more like a shared journey. if this essay stirred something in you, reach out. write to me, or talk to someone near you. let’s start a conversation because the world needs it. i’m listening, and i promise you won’t be ignored.
aging isn’t the enemy, neglect is. fear is. disconnection is. your generation isn’t just inheriting this shift; you’re shaping it. japan’s diaper pivot was a symbol, a reminder that societies, like people, adapt or fade. in 2023, japan’s government launched a $20 billion plan to boost births, including free childcare and housing subsidies, yet young couples still hesitate, citing work-life imbalance [nikkei asia, 2024]. india’s own schemes, like atal pension yojana, cover only 10% of informal workers, leaving millions of elderly vulnerable [mof, 2024]. the challenge is clear - build systems, spaces, and stories that embrace age without losing youth’s energy. but what role will you play in a world growing older? will you code an app for seniors, advocate for better pensions, or simply call your grandmother tonight? your future might be greyer, but with care, courage, and connection, it can still be golden.
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thank you for reading this long essay. i hope it reflected some value to you as much as it did to me.
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